winter

RECENT POSTS

Tornadoes and pests possible downsides of warm winters

Tornadoes, pests … sounds like the start of a list of plagues. But it’s not a Biblical passage I’m referencing. It’s this morning’s news wires.

Reuters has an article by Sharon Begley about the possible connection between global warming and early, severe tornado outbreaks:

According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms.

“As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April,” said climatologist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Whether climate change will also affect the frequency or severity of tornadoes, however, remains very much an open question, and one that has received surprisingly little study.

Meanwhile, the AP takes off the rose-colored glasses and takes a look at one downside of this unusually warm winter:

The mild winter that has given many Northern farmers a break from shoveling and a welcome chance to catch up on maintenance could lead to a tough spring as many pests that would normally freeze, have not.

Winters are usually what one agriculture specialist calls a “reset button” that gives farmer a fresh start come planting season. But with relatively mild temperatures and little snow, insects are surviving, growing and, in some areas, already munching on budding plants.

Feeling the blues while adapting to winter’s ‘new normal’

I couldn’t have timed this better if I’d tried … which I didn’t. The Daily Climate today features an essay about the very same psychological impacts of climate change that Hector Galbraith referenced in the first part of our Cape Change series. So I’m reposting the essay here in full.


Photo courtesy OutsideBozeman.com

Skiers on the Bozeman Creek trail in Sourdough Canyon in Bozeman, Mont., on a snowy day. Winter in 2012 has left many skiers in Bozeman frustrated.

By Alan S. Kesselheim
for The Daily Climate
BOZEMAN, Mont. – About three miles up the ski trail I start thinking about the “new normal.” In Montana this February this new reality leaves out winter as we know it. It’s a state in which one inch of overnight snowfall is enough to goad me out onto the trail. I catch myself rationalizing conditions, thinking things are pretty good, when, in fact, conditions suck by any historic measure.

Given the alternatives, three miles up into the woods on skis, with an inch of new snow on top of pavement-hard ice seems pretty cush.

This season’s weather seems ominous, off-kilter. It makes me nervous.

At the same time, I can’t complain. My sister, in New England, reported spring flowers starting to peek above ground in February and birds migrating a month ahead of schedule. People I know in northern Minnesota were whining about not being able to go ice fishing in January because there was no ice. They saw people out in boats where, normally, ice shacks hunker over red-and-white fishing bobbers.

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Mild winter highlights rift between climate scientists and the public

Scientists predict that Massachusetts could have the climate of the Carolinas by late this century if global warming continues unabated. With temperatures several degrees above average, this winter has brought a taste of what may be to come. And some wonder if that’s really such a bad thing. In the first installment of our four-part series, Cape Change: A Local Perspective on Global Warming, we explore the disparity between the scientific consensus and public opinion on climate change.



Jennifer Junker / WCAI

Blooming daffodils have been spotted around Cape Cod since early February.

Daffodils blooming, kite surfers out on the water, and garden-fresh broccoli at the farmer’s market. It all sounds more like May than February, and it’s gotten a lot of people wondering if this winter is global warming in action.

“What we’ve had this winter is weather, it’s not climate,” says Hector Galbraith, director of Climate Change Initiatives at the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences. “But what we’ve seen this winter is maybe something like the sort of winter climate we can expect in 20 or 30 years, with less snowfall, milder temperatures, and some people might like that.”

Galbraith says he enjoys the warm weather as much as anyone. And he openly admits that climate change will benefit some people, at last in the short term. But it won’t be all roses – or early daffodils.

“People think of the climate change predictions as being slowly increasing temperature, everybody gets used to it, and adapts to it, and it seems okay,” says Galbraith. “But the major predictions from the climate models are to expect a greater frequency and intensity and duration of extreme events – floods, droughts, so on and so forth.”
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What a climate changed winter looks like (or not)

Yesterday afternoon, this tweet by ClimateCentral’s Heidi Cullen grabbed my eye:

@HeidiCullen: On this anniversary of Snowmageddon, a quick comparision: 2/6/11: 48.3% US #snow covered – 2/6/12: 26.2%: bit.ly/83ViYS #climate

22% seems like a big difference, but the data geek in me wanted more information. I went to the National Snow Analyses website and grabbed the data for snow cover on February 6th of the past nine years. Over that time, the portion of the U.S. covered by snow on February 6th (green line/area) has fluctuated around an average of 40.9% (orange line). In this context, neither this year nor last year seems terribly unusual.

Percent of US covered by snow on February 6th

But snow cover on one particular date doesn’t tell the whole story. Continue reading

Coming soon: Christmas Bird Counts (and some southerly transplants)

Dr. Thomas T. Barnes / U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Seen one of these guys recently? For you non-birders, it’s a purple finch. And, according to Earth Gauge, your chances of seeing one of them in southern New England this time of year are far better now than they were a few decades ago, thanks to climate change.

Warmer winter temperatures are allowing the Purple Finch to winter 433 miles farther north than it did in the 1960s.

Here’s what that looks like in graphic format:

And purple finches aren’t alone: Continue reading